Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 0.016545 0.018763 0.021174 0.023992 0.027196 0.030728 0.034919
2025-04-27 0.013205 0.016281 0.019920 0.024547 0.030284 0.037176 0.046103
2025-05-04 0.011482 0.014983 0.019367 0.025274 0.033044 0.042946 0.056568
2025-05-11 0.009921 0.013556 0.018325 0.025060 0.034359 0.046797 0.064778
2025-05-18 0.008813 0.012530 0.017608 0.025079 0.035837 0.050846 0.073507
2025-05-25 0.007809 0.011502 0.016730 0.024708 0.036636 0.053915 0.081039
2025-06-01 0.007187 0.010935 0.016419 0.025070 0.038462 0.058549 0.091238
2025-06-08 0.006524 0.010225 0.015806 0.024887 0.039398 0.061875 0.099687
2025-06-15 0.006164 0.009937 0.015791 0.025597 0.041750 0.067545 0.112339
2025-06-22 0.005511 0.009116 0.014857 0.024733 0.041462 0.068935 0.118054
2025-06-29 0.005050 0.008560 0.014291 0.024406 0.042000 0.071680 0.126253
2025-07-06 0.004548 0.007887 0.013469 0.023560 0.041557 0.072693 0.131476
2025-07-13 0.004370 0.007763 0.013574 0.024347 0.044070 0.079110 0.147123
2025-07-20 0.004172 0.007586 0.013572 0.024944 0.046300 0.085235 0.162878
2025-07-27 0.004013 0.007462 0.013649 0.025681 0.048841 0.092132 0.180755
2025-08-03 0.003733 0.007088 0.013237 0.025464 0.049546 0.095633 0.192337
2025-08-10 0.003511 0.006804 0.012966 0.025483 0.050700 0.100074 0.206205
2025-08-17 0.003261 0.006442 0.012514 0.025106 0.051023 0.102895 0.217000
2025-08-24 0.003119 0.006283 0.012441 0.025474 0.052882 0.108950 0.235164
2025-08-31 0.002928 0.006007 0.012112 0.025288 0.053569 0.112641 0.248582
2025-09-07 0.002846 0.005948 0.012215 0.026009 0.056235 0.120713 0.272441
2025-09-14 0.002613 0.005551 0.011594 0.025132 0.055360 0.121098 0.278980
2025-09-21 0.002450 0.005293 0.011238 0.024799 0.055651 0.124044 0.291682